Thứ Sáu, 6 tháng 8, 2010

Fundamental trading vs. technical trading - By Big A

First let me share what these two types of analysis are.

Fundamentals, or as I like to call them fuzzymentals, try to predict stock or ETF future prices by supply, demand, interest rates, government policy, weather, underlying economic factors, etc. In part it does work if you are an economist and very, very good at it, but it will never generate the types of profits that technical analysis can.

Technical analysis takes advantage of the fact that ETFs move in trends 30% of the time. It helps identify those trends and take advantage of moving prices.

Ultimately we don't care what (if any) the fundamental reasons are for price movement, but that it is moving and we are capturing profit from it. Identifying trends is one of the most important things to learn.

My system uses only technical trading because I know, not just believe, that the price already reflects all the known fundamentals. For example when a hurricane is approaching the U.S. Gulf coast oil prices start to go up. Because of the new fundamental knowledge of the storm the price already started moving up at the time the knowledge became available, not when the storm actually hit.

Most importantly even if somehow you magically knew all the fundamental information there was you would not know the market's reaction to that information. If you knew all the reasons why the market was going to crash in October 2008 you still would not know how far it was going to crash. With technical analysis my system caught a very large part of that drop in many ETFs.

I honestly believe that if your portfolio is stagnant it is time to rethink your whole approach to the markets or at least diversify a portion of it to self trading.

One of the questions I get a lot is how much money does the 10 minute per night trading system make? The answer depends on how much you trade. The easier way is to look at percentages.

Total compounded monthly result are: 5.7%.
Non compounded monthly results are: 3.28%

All this while risking only 0.5% to 2% on every first trade and having very low draw downs. The max risk to the full trading account at any one time is only 3-6%.

Day trading my system can make you over 12% per month with the same low risk. You could make more once you become experienced and trade a larger list of ETFs. The results above are based on following only 4 ETFs that I follow in my daily member only blog.

If you use an IRA account I will give you a list on inverse ETFs which allow you to sell the market, but because you can't use margin in a IRA or 401k account you will need to cut the above returns in half. Plus cut the draw downs (losses) in half. Having the ability to sell the market is a huge advantage in trading ETFs. Imagine if you could have sold the market during the crash in your IRA account.

Where else can you safely average 3%-6% per month or 2%-3% per month in a IRA account trading only 10 minutes per night?
 
Anyone who complains about these returns, with the low draw downs, does not understand real trading and investing. Please even if you never join my one year mentorship program don't fall for all the hype on the internet. The reason your gut tells you "50% per month", or "no losing trades" is too good to be true, is because your gut feeling is right. That is why you will never see any hype on my website or videos. 

Please call or email my office anytime.

Helping you retire on time,

Big A

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